1ドル・オークション(ダラー・オークション)
1ドル・オークション(ダラー・オークション)
もしも、あなたが絶対に勝てないゲームがあるのならば、唯一の合理的答えは、そのゲームに参加しない、である。
そのゲームを破壊すべきだ。
以下の、1ドル・オークション(ダラー・オークション)は、良い例である。
こんにち(あるいは300年以上にわたり)、西側がルールを作り、西側が一方的に審判をしてきた。
我々は、この条件下では絶対に勝てない。。
この場合、このゲームに参加してはならない。
このゲームを破壊すべきだ。
これが唯一の合理的答えだ。
もちろん、我々は、正義を守り、人権を守る。
[Wikipedia]
「ダラー・オークションDollar auction」
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction
The dollar auction is a non-zero sum sequential game explored by economist Martin Shubik to illustrate how a short-sighted approach to rational choice can lead to decisions that are, in the long-run, irrational.
プレー
以下のルールの下で、1ドル紙幣をオークションで競り落とす：ドル紙幣は商社のモノになる；しかし2位以下の入札者は掛け金をすべて失う
The setup involves an auctioneer who volunteers to auction off a dollar bill with the following rule: the bill goes to the winner; however, the second-highest bidder also loses the amount that they bid, making them the biggest loser in the auction.
The winner can get a dollar for a mere 5 cents (the minimum bid), but only if no one else enters into the bidding war.
However, entering the auction with a low bid may result in a problematic outcome.
For instance, a player might begin by bidding 5 cents, hoping to make a 95-cent profit.
They can be outbid by another player bidding 10 cents, as a 90-cent profit is still desirable.
Similarly, another bidder may bid 15 cents, making an 85-cent profit.
Meanwhile, the second bidder may attempt to convert their loss of 10 cents into a gain of 80 cents by bidding 20 cents, and so on.
Every player has a choice of either paying for nothing or bidding 5 cents more on the dollar.
A series of short-term rational bids will reach and ultimately surpass one dollar as the bidders seek to minimize their losses.
If the first bidder bids 95 cents, and the second bidder bids one dollar (for no net gain or loss), the first bidder stands to lose 95 cents unless they bid $1.05, in which case bidding more than the value of the dollar would reduce their losses to only 5 cents.
Bidding continues with the second highest bidder always losing more than the highest bidder and therefore always trying to become the high bidder.
Once the highest bid reaches one dollar, only the auctioneer will profit in the end.
